In our hi-tech era with all the talk of big data and massive data centres consuming ever increasing amounts of electricity one would have assumed that the quality of data we would have had on ALL THINGS COVID would have been extremely highly detailed and of the very best quality. Nothing could be further from the truth. Right from the start, from the vagaries of Covid testing done by who knows how many different companies using different patented tests run at unknown cycle thresholds with unknown levels of false positives and negatives, through to a systemic obscurity as to whether mortality was being assessed with deaths WITH or FROM covid: the data has been shockingly poor by every metric.
There seems to be no standardization in how data is reported even within the same government departments such as PHE, the UKHSA and ONS. Different age groups are used and the data is chopped up into all sorts of incomparable groupings and methods between different reports to the extent that anyone trying to analyse it is compelled to be constantly comparing apples with oranges or apples and downright smelly turds when it comes to numbers per 100,000 of population when the actual total number of unvaccinated people in the UK is completely unknown and is likely under reported by 10 million people.
Having wasted probably hundreds of hours analysing different reports over last 2 years, I always had to come to the conclusion that I couldn’t say or comment on anything I had read with any reasonable degree of certainty other than the fact that the whole enterprise is just mired in wrongness.
So how many unvaccinated people in the UK are currently in ICU?
You would think that would be a fairly straight forward question to answer given our modern technology with £billions invested in cutting edge computerised health care systems. Yet for the past few weeks the media has been filled with government officials, doctors and MSM puppets claiming that anything between 90-99% of people in ICU are unvaccinated. Even the so called statistical experts who used to work for the ONS and have since gone rogue are claiming that the figure in November was 48% occupancy of ICU by the unvaccinated. WHERE DO THEY GET THIS FROM?
Actually it’s a pretty ambiguous statement in ICNARC’s November and December reports.
The percentage of patients admitted to critical care with confirmed COVID-19 that were unvaccinated decreased from 75% in May 2021 to 48% in November 2021 (Figure 27), consistent with the decreasing proportion of the general population who were unvaccinated.
That statement in itself should have raised some eyebrows but no-one seems to have been paying attention. People in the general UK population only qualified as fully vaccinated by February 2021 on account of the fact that the UK left a minimum period of 3 months between the first and second vaccinations and the program started in the most elderly and vulnerable patients first. However the average age of people admitted to ICU according to the ICNARC document was 53.9 years of age and according to earlier data tables published only 11% of patients admitted to ICU were aged 70 plus though of course you have to do these calculations yourself.
Taking this into consideration then it does not say a lot about vaccine efficacy when we see that as early as May 2021, 25% of ICU Covid patients had been vaccinated with one or two doses. Neither does it seem credible that between May 1st and July 31st in the table above that the proportion of unvaccinated patients had fallen from 75% in May to 73.1% by the end of July given any reasonable consistency with the “decreasing proportion of the general population who were unvaccinated”. Given the high 25% of vaccinated in ICU in May, then I find it exceptionally difficult to believe that just a 1.9% increase occurred in 3 months considering the lower age profiles of ICU patients compared to general admissions. Please note that the average of death in the UK was around 82 years of age and that 80% of patients die on general wards and not in ICU.
The main question however is whether this 48% by November 15th 2021 is the actual proportion of ICU patients on that date who were unvaccinated or whether this is still referring to this cumulative data series from May 1st to November 15th as these are vastly different things? Why should we even be having to ask ourselves such questions?
If we look at the ICNARC December report they state that from May 1st to November 15th 5,065 unvaccinated and 3,528 vaccinated patients had been admitted to ICU in that period which gives a total of 8593 patients.
If we go back to the November 26th report we find that 10? days after that date a total of 10,873 patients had been admitted to ICU. It is unclear as to the precise dates as it is reported as 1 May 2021 to date so we can’t really say how many had been admitted by November 15th in a report published on November 26th.
So we already have one glaring and irritating anomaly in that ICNARC only seems to have known the vaccination status of 8,593 patients out of a possible total of 10,873 at the time meaning that 2,280 (21%) were unknown and it is obviously impossible that they were admitted in the missing days. That aside, if we do the calculation of 5065/10,873 * 100 we get 46.6% of ICU patients who were known to be unvaccinated for the entire period from May 1st to November 15th. If we subtract the unknown number of patients admitted from November 15th to the (to date?) of the report published on 26th November we could comfortably get to ICNARC’s claimed 48%.
The level of unvaccinated patients in ICU on November 15th could not possibly have been 48% but most likely in the region of 20-25%. In UKHSA vaccine surveillance reports the proportion of deaths in the unvaccinated and vaccinated has fluctuated around 20-25% and 75-80% respectively. Given these proportions it would be reasonable to assume that ICU admissions would be similarly structured unless for some inexplicable reason the much despised unvaccinated population was being given privileged admission to ICU.
At the end of the day we don’t really know because ICNARCs statements are so ambiguous and the underlying data is of such poor quality as we have 21% of unknown vaccination status. I’m now making a mental note to myself to punch myself in the head every time I even start to think about looking at these cans of data worms.
If anyone wants to similarly waste their time you can download the reports from the Wayback Machine.
https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
In part two, if I can rise above my state of data depression I shall be looking at the even shoddier and useless data put about by the UKHSA in their Vaccine Surveillance Reports.